Alienated-Horst
0xf8871f87fbb32d5ce21e3f8902f70f4f0f266b54
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
77
Open notional
$28.7K
Total PnL
$1.1K
Realised
$882.68
Win rate
82%
39 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 77- NO
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?
9100 shares @ 87.2¢·now 88.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.0K
$71.03
- NO
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?
3200 shares @ 94.5¢·now 95.3¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$3.0K
$24.22
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?
2200 shares @ 80.2¢·now 87.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.9K
$161.50
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?
1500 shares @ 88.3¢·now 93.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.4K
$77.50
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026?
1200 shares @ 84.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.1K
$89.49
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July?
1075 shares @ 95.4¢·now 99.7¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$1.1K
$46.08
- NO
Will Dante Gebel win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
1048 shares @ 90.6¢·now 96.6¢·exp Oct 24, 2027$1.0K
$62.59
- NO
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $48 in July?
940 shares @ 97.5¢·now 99.6¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$935.77
$18.79
- NO
UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026?
899 shares @ 92.9¢·now 96.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$866.07
$30.57
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?
1000 shares @ 72.1¢·now 81.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$814.90
$94.15
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the official USD to ARS exchange rate be between 1500.00 and 1549.99 at the end of December 2026?$28.33Jul 28, 17:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the official USD to ARS exchange rate be between 1550.00 and 1599.99 at the end of December 2026?$30.71Jul 28, 17:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?$75.43Jul 28, 15:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026?$67.54Jul 28, 15:53 UTC
- TRADESELLUK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026?$8.29Jul 28, 14:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?$143.81Jul 28, 02:51 UTC
- YIELD$0.70Jul 28, 00:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?$94.95Jul 27, 20:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?$21.64Jul 27, 17:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?$72.46Jul 27, 17:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Dante Gebel win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?$95.94Jul 27, 17:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?$484.14Jul 27, 17:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?$93.30Jul 27, 17:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?$20.88Jul 27, 16:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Victoria Villarruel win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?$0.01Jul 27, 11:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Victoria Villarruel win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?$0.04Jul 27, 11:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Argentina make Peter Thiel a citizen by December 31?$0.53Jul 27, 11:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?$669.21Jul 27, 09:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Victoria Villarruel win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?$0.04Jul 27, 08:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Victoria Villarruel win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?$0.34Jul 27, 03:45 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
72/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
82% win rate over 39 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
39 closed markets, 82% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $139.74
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 25, 02:27 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 17:51 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 39 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.