Simplistic-Policy
0xf8d44842db2045709d3aa451d89aacd21b81a0b5
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
23
Open notional
$29.13
Total PnL
$-33.87
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 23- YES
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
263 shares @ 1.9¢·now 2.1¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$5.39
$0.39
- YES
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
6 shares @ 84.9¢·now 80.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$4.74
$-0.26
- YES
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
14 shares @ 35.0¢·now 33.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.71
$-0.29
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
20 shares @ 24.9¢·now 20.6¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$4.15
$-0.85
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
27 shares @ 18.5¢·now 15.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$4.07
$-0.93
- YES
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
9 shares @ 56.0¢·now 42.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$3.79
$-1.21
- YES
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?
4 shares @ 25.0¢·now 24.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$0.98
$-0.02
- NO
US strike on Colombia by December 31?
1 shares @ 83.0¢·now 77.5¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.93
$-0.07
- YES
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
143 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.3¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.36
$-0.64
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 14?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2026?$6.33Jun 24, 12:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?$5.53Jun 24, 12:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?$6.72Jun 24, 12:38 UTC
- TRADESELLCalifornia voter ID referendum passes?$10.41Jun 24, 12:38 UTC
- TRADESELLFed rate hike in 2026?$23.66Jun 24, 12:38 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 24, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 23, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 22, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 21, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?$5.10Jun 20, 12:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 20, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 19, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 18, 00:17 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?$7.06Jun 17, 11:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$10.45Jun 17, 11:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? AND Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw?$2.06Jun 17, 11:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? AND Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? AND Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? AND Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?$2.06Jun 17, 11:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? AND Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? AND Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?$2.06Jun 17, 11:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 17, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 16, 00:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
17 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 17
- Avg trade size
- $6.36
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 26, 22:30 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 24, 12:38 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.