Favorite-Sorrow
0xf8eca32d982d9124edaac13237117573ddfa3514
Wallet digest
Activity score
86/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
12
Open notional
$551.72
Total PnL
$-25.79
Realised
$-1.19
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- NO
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
475 shares @ 50.0¢·now 81.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$386.51
$148.95
- YES
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
475 shares @ 50.0¢·now 18.6¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$88.61
$-148.95
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 42°C on May 14?
10 shares @ 99.8¢·now 99.5¢·exp May 14, 2026$9.86
$-0.03
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on May 14?
9 shares @ 99.8¢·now 99.8¢·exp May 14, 2026$9.30
$0.00
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C or below on May 14?
9 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.8¢·exp May 14, 2026$9.09
$-0.01
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 14?
9 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.8¢·exp May 14, 2026$8.79
$-0.01
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on May 14?
9 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 14, 2026$8.70
$0.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on May 14?
8 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.7¢·exp May 14, 2026$8.38
$-0.02
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 2°C on May 14?
8 shares @ 99.8¢·now 99.8¢·exp May 14, 2026$8.30
$-0.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 70-71°F on May 14?
8 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.8¢·exp May 14, 2026$8.09
$-0.01
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 70-71°F on May 14?$8.102h ago
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on May 14?$8.402h ago
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C or below on May 14?$6.102h ago
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 42°C on May 14?$9.902h ago
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on May 14?$8.702h ago
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 14?$8.802h ago
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Paris be 2°C on May 14?$8.302h ago
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C or below on May 14?$9.102h ago
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on May 14?$9.302h ago
- MERGEWill JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$100.302h ago
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 12?$1.914h ago
- YIELD$0.067h ago
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on May 12?$1.908h ago
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C or higher on May 12?$1.708h ago
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 12?$1.6013h ago
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on May 12?$1.4014h ago
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Austin be between 66-67°F on May 12?$1.6016h ago
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on May 12?$1.801d ago
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on May 12?$1.501d ago
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 8°C on May 12?$1.401d ago
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 25
- Avg trade size
- $4.08
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- 5d ago
- Last active
- 2h ago
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".
