Mediocre-Contour
0xf9240714781ae41cc8625654bb00b47b3e8b435b
Wallet digest
Activity score
72/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
59
Open notional
$549.26
Total PnL
$-1.2K
Realised
$-14.28
Win rate
43%
30 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 59- NO
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?
195 shares @ 89.0¢·now 95.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$185.25
$11.70
- NO
Will Russia capture Lyman by March 31, 2026?
75 shares @ 73.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$75.45
$20.37
- NO
Will Kim Kardashian announce a Presidential run before 2027?
53 shares @ 90.0¢·now 97.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$51.46
$3.76
- YES
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?
40 shares @ 30.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$40.00
$28.00
- YES
Will the Republican Party win the FL-07 House seat?
50 shares @ 88.0¢·now 67.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$33.75
$-10.25
- NO
Will Amy Klobuchar vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026?
33 shares @ 85.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$33.16
$4.97
- NO
Will Bernie Sanders vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026?
30 shares @ 95.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$29.64
$1.48
- NO
Maduro guilty of all counts?
37 shares @ 76.0¢·now 78.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$28.79
$0.74
- NO
Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027?
28 shares @ 47.0¢·now 79.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$22.26
$9.10
- NO
Will Bernie endorse Antonio Delgado for NY-Gov by Nov 2 2026 ET?
16 shares @ 95.0¢·now 98.3¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$15.37
$0.51
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill there be at least 1,200 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?$0.19Mar 27, 16:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Hannah Spencer win the Gorton and Denton by-election?$0.23Mar 27, 16:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by February 28, 2026?$0.28Mar 27, 16:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Gagan Kumar Thapa be the next Prime Minister of Nepal?$1.31Mar 27, 16:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Opendoor Technologies (OPEN) beat quarterly earnings?$8.69Mar 27, 16:00 UTC
- REDEEMChatGPT Outage by February 21, 2026?$9.48Mar 27, 16:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel strike Gaza on February 20, 2026?$23.24Mar 27, 16:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Andrew Tate post 100-129 posts from February 13 to February 20, 2026?$24.35Mar 27, 16:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on February 20?$50.00Mar 27, 16:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill ETSY (ETSY) beat quarterly earnings?$50.00Mar 27, 16:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Canada win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?$99.50Mar 27, 16:00 UTC
- REDEEMOdds US strikes Iran by Feb 2 over 20% on Friday?$100.00Mar 27, 16:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)?$417.00Mar 27, 16:00 UTC
- REWARD$2.47Feb 25, 00:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the DHS shutdown last 21 days or more?$87.64Feb 24, 09:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Philadelphia 76ers make the NBA Playoffs?$0.86Feb 24, 09:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the People’s Party (PPLE) win between 150 and 164 seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?$0.03Feb 24, 09:19 UTC
- TRADESELL2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds over 40% by March 31?$19.40Feb 24, 08:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by March 31, 2026?$10.89Feb 24, 08:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bill Gates be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?$1.80Feb 24, 06:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
55/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
43% win rate over 30 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.
30 closed markets, 43% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $12.30
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 23, 16:44 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 27, 16:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 30 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.