Portly-Yahoo
0xfa323e40632edca701abc6c8cf1f82175909bd9a
Wallet digest
Activity score
38/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-200.8K
Realised
$-17.0K
Win rate
20%
25 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
149999 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-450.00
- YES
Will Hyperliquid be accused of insider trading?
34054 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-370.71
- YES
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?
31466 shares @ 13.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-4.3K
- YES
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
26200 shares @ 10.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.8K
- NO
Maduro out by January 31, 2026?
14200 shares @ 77.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-11.0K
- NO
Will Andrew Cuomo run as a non-Democrat in the general election?
12734 shares @ 64.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2025$0.00
$-8.3K
- NO
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?
12045 shares @ 13.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$0.00
$-1.7K
- NO
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
10824 shares @ 52.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-5.7K
- YES
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31?
10500 shares @ 29.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-3.1K
- YES
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
9500 shares @ 9.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-912.99
Recent activity
- TAKER_REBATE$10.71Jul 9, 21:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 9, 00:13 UTC
- REWARD$1.23Jul 9, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLIntuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q2 da Vinci procedure growth <12.5%?$2.21Jul 8, 23:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYIntuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q2 da Vinci procedure growth <12.5%?$114.09Jul 8, 23:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$19.03Jul 8, 23:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill GE Vernova (GEV) Q2 orders be above $20B?$3.42Jul 8, 23:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill GE Vernova (GEV) Q2 orders be above $20B?$30.74Jul 8, 23:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GE Vernova (GEV) Q2 orders be above $20B?$1.1KJul 8, 23:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Emmet Carroll win the 2026 PLL Goalie of the Year?$452.40Jul 8, 23:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Emmet Carroll win the 2026 PLL Goalie of the Year?$10.5KJul 8, 23:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$19.71Jul 8, 22:36 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$2.0KJul 8, 20:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$1.8KJul 8, 02:23 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$38.79Jul 8, 00:45 UTC
- YIELD$0.38Jul 8, 00:25 UTC
- REWARD$0.24Jul 8, 00:15 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$1.26Jul 8, 00:10 UTC
- REWARD$42.89Jul 8, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$6.37Jul 7, 21:22 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
50/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
20% win rate over 25 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 43/100.
25 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $679.65
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 7, 01:11 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 9, 21:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 25 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.