Burdensome-Upward
0xfa7d856425fb1e763b54219bb994d2054ab8a524
Wallet digest
Activity score
35/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$77.16
Total PnL
$-17.7K
Realised
$-4.3K
Win rate
2%
193 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
143 shares @ 70.0¢·now 19.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$27.86
$-72.14
- YES
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
202 shares @ 12.4¢·now 12.2¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$24.50
$-0.50
- YES
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
86 shares @ 23.1¢·now 22.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$19.75
$-0.25
- YES
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
95 shares @ 21.0¢·now 4.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.29
$-15.71
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6AM ET
170 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.4¢·exp May 20, 2026$0.77
$-17.93
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
13440 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-123.68
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET
11269 shares @ 25.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 21, 2026$0.00
$-2.9K
- YES
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 PGA Championship?
10357 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026$0.00
$-19.99
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET
8788 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 24, 2026$0.00
$-92.23
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?
6794 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$0.00
$-63.99
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Aug 18, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 17, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 16, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 15, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 14, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 13, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 12, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 11, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 10, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 9, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 8, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 7, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 6, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 5, 02:34 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 4, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 3, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 2, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 1, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 31, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 30, 00:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
59/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
2% win rate over 193 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
193 closed markets, 2% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 30, 00:18 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 18, 00:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 193 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.