Attentive-Birdcage
0xfa98f2af1742ab0f1793d02495e0068e842fb755
Wallet digest
Activity score
51/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
33
Open notional
$112.24
Total PnL
$-2.5K
Realised
$-1.2K
Win rate
0%
22 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 33- NO
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on August 12?
101 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$101.15
$0.15
- NO
Will Elena Lasconi be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
11 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.09
$-0.01
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 1?
812 shares @ 25.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$0.00
$-207.04
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 4?
761 shares @ 25.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 4, 2026$0.00
$-194.03
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on March 31?
735 shares @ 26.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-193.85
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?
690 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.38
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on February 13?
675 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.35
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on April 1?
640 shares @ 25.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$0.00
$-163.27
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on March 31?
634 shares @ 26.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-168.20
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on April 4?
600 shares @ 25.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 4, 2026$0.00
$-153.36
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on August 12?$101.01Aug 11, 07:52 UTC
- REDEEMFrance vs. England: Team to Win$11.11Aug 11, 07:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 Week of July 13 2026?$90.09Aug 11, 07:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 Week of July 13 2026?$90.00Jul 17, 08:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance vs. England: Team to Win$4.13Jul 17, 08:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $108 in June?$94.19Jul 17, 08:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $108 in June?$94.01Jun 30, 07:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of June 1 2026?$18.20Jun 30, 07:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $102.50 Week of June 1 2026?$76.08Jun 30, 07:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of June 1 2026?$18.18Jun 5, 13:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $102.50 Week of June 1 2026?$76.00Jun 5, 13:08 UTC
- REDEEMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$94.18Jun 5, 13:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$94.09Jun 1, 06:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYGolden Knights vs. Hurricanes$8.56Jun 1, 06:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill Google have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?$12.09Jun 1, 06:44 UTC
- REDEEMArizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners$13.62Jun 1, 06:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?$76.94Jun 1, 06:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?$76.86May 31, 07:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYArizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners$8.00May 31, 07:26 UTC
- REDEEMRoland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Raphael Collignon$11.43May 31, 07:23 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
40/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 22 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
33 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 67/100.
22 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $66.38
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 26, 04:32 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 11, 07:52 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 22 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.