0xfa9e0d88517efac6a503550983dff6c51a842264
0xfa9e0d88517efac6a503550983dff6c51a842264
Wallet digest
Activity score
47/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$511.61
Total PnL
$-5.3K
Realised
$-121.10
Win rate
3%
197 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1257 shares @ 20.8¢·now 20.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$257.04
$-4.67
- YES
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?
201 shares @ 24.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$201.06
$152.57
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 9?
49 shares @ 30.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026$49.04
$33.91
- YES
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
18 shares @ 57.0¢·now 25.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$4.47
$-5.52
- YES
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026?
52625 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-105.21
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 24?
10066 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 24, 2026$0.00
$-69.93
- YES
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026?
10065 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-60.39
- COLORADO ROCKIES
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies
10000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 13, 2026$0.00
$-9.99
- PISTONS
Pistons vs. Cavaliers
7650 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$0.00
$-20.99
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C or higher on May 20?
4887 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 20, 2026$0.00
$-39.99
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.02Aug 22, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Aug 21, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Aug 20, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Aug 19, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Aug 18, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Aug 17, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Aug 16, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Aug 15, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Aug 14, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Aug 13, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Aug 12, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Aug 11, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Aug 10, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Aug 9, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Aug 8, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Aug 7, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Aug 6, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Aug 5, 02:32 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Aug 4, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Aug 3, 00:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
51/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
3% win rate over 197 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
3 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
197 closed markets, 3% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 3
- Avg trade size
- $232.55
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 9, 14:50 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 22, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 197 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.