Daring-Month
0xfabe7c8fc4a349474f34f8ee0f35ada286c33e22
Wallet digest
Activity score
80/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
153
Open notional
$128.43
Total PnL
$-277.89
Realised
$4.57
Win rate
71%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 153- YES
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
57 shares @ 78.5¢·now 98.9¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$56.54
$11.62
- NO
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
17 shares @ 83.5¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$17.18
$2.79
- NO
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
17 shares @ 85.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$16.73
$2.50
- NO
Will Bill Cassidy be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?
11 shares @ 96.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$10.70
$0.33
- YES
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
10 shares @ 85.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$10.06
$1.51
- NO
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?
5 shares @ 62.0¢·now 62.5¢·exp Jun 24, 2026$3.22
$0.03
- YES
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
25 shares @ 9.7¢·now 10.8¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$2.75
$0.29
- WASHINGTON NATIONALS
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals
5 shares @ 48.0¢·now 47.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$2.16
$-0.02
- NO
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
2 shares @ 99.2¢·now 99.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$2.00
$0.00
- NO
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
2 shares @ 99.2¢·now 99.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$2.00
$0.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5$1.83Jun 24, 19:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?$3.23Jun 24, 18:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYPhiladelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals$1.11Jun 24, 18:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYPhiladelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals$1.11Jun 24, 18:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Runoff by at least 15%?$1.21Jun 24, 17:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Runoff by at least 15%?$1.21Jun 24, 17:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYAtlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres$1.11Jun 24, 15:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYLos Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5$1.11Jun 24, 13:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYBoston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies$1.10Jun 22, 22:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5$1.10Jun 22, 20:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5$1.10Jun 22, 20:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5$1.10Jun 22, 20:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5$1.10Jun 22, 20:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5$2.73Jun 22, 20:02 UTC
- REDEEMArgentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5$10.04Jun 22, 19:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Runoff by at least 15%?$2.81Jun 22, 18:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYAtlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5$1.11Jun 22, 16:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYMilwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds$1.34Jun 22, 12:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Argentina (-1.5)$3.13Jun 22, 12:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYArgentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5$2.59Jun 22, 12:23 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
44/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
71% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $1.24
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 21, 15:04 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 24, 19:02 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.