Loading shell…
PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires Jun 21, 2026

Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Probability

26¢

1h

+0.5pp

24h

-1.5pp

24h Vol

$15.4K

Liquidity

$49.1K

Probability (last 7 days)

+7.5pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 14:00Apr 25, 2026, 13:45
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  1. 1

    Down 2pp over 24h

    Now 26¢; +0.5pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 1368h with open resolution ambiguity.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 1368.2h

    LOW
  • 13:45Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 1368h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 03:00Price

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 28¢

    MEDIUM
  • 02:00Price

    Probability up 3.5pp

    to 28¢

    MEDIUM
  • 00:00Price

    Probability up 3.5pp

    to 28¢

    MEDIUM
  • 22:00Price

    Probability up 4.0pp

    to 28¢

    MEDIUM
  • 21:00Price

    Probability up 4.0pp

    to 28¢

    MEDIUM
  • 20:00Price

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 28¢

    MEDIUM
  • 19:00Price

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 28¢

    MEDIUM
  • 17:00Price

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 28¢

    MEDIUM
  • 16:00Price

    Probability up 4.0pp

    to 28¢

    MEDIUM
  • 14:00Price

    Probability up 4.0pp

    to 28¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.5pp

    to 27¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.5pp

    to 27¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 6.0pp

    to 27¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 6.0pp

    to 27¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.0pp

    to 27¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.0pp

    to 26¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.5pp

    to 26¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.0pp

    to 26¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.0pp

    to 26¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 6.0pp

    to 27¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 7.0pp

    to 27¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 7.0pp

    to 27¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 6.0pp

    to 27¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 7.5pp

    to 27¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 7.5pp

    to 27¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 8.0pp

    to 27¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 8.0pp

    to 27¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 8.0pp

    to 27¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jun 21, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Not specified in metadata
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).