Jaunty-Academics
0xfbad359b4e00f3d6909a706b7c23d9c694729e4b
Wallet digest
Activity score
73/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
40
Open notional
$965.58
Total PnL
$-132.44
Realised
$-44.14
Win rate
29%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 40- YES
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
865 shares @ 19.3¢·now 39.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$336.91
$169.97
- YES
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
865 shares @ 12.8¢·now 22.3¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$192.46
$81.74
- YES
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
865 shares @ 13.9¢·now 21.3¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$183.81
$63.58
- YES
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1000 shares @ 14.7¢·now 17.4¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$174.40
$27.40
- NO
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?
50 shares @ 67.0¢·now 76.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$38.06
$4.50
- NO
Graham Platner divorce by October 31?
20 shares @ 73.0¢·now 83.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$16.70
$2.10
- YES
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?
100 shares @ 21.3¢·now 15.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$15.50
$-5.85
- NO
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?
20 shares @ 39.3¢·now 31.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.30
$-1.57
- YES
Will Karolina Wydra – “Pluribus” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actress in a drama series?
20 shares @ 13.0¢·now 4.7¢·exp Sep 14, 2026$0.94
$-1.66
- NO
Will BTS perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?
20 shares @ 3.8¢·now 1.2¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$0.24
$-0.52
Recent activity
- TRADESELLGraham Platner divorce by October 31?$1.80Jul 13, 12:29 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Jul 13, 00:13 UTC
- REWARD$3.11Jul 13, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?$1.72Jul 12, 14:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?$11.48Jul 12, 14:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?$3.25Jul 12, 14:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?$30.25Jul 12, 14:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?$6.20Jul 12, 12:48 UTC
- TRADESELLIran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday?$48.90Jul 12, 09:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania?$25.50Jul 12, 07:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?$7.95Jul 12, 06:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?$34.50Jul 12, 06:27 UTC
- TRADESELLIran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday?$0.14Jul 12, 05:57 UTC
- TRADESELLIran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday?$1.22Jul 12, 05:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jerry Carl be the Republican nominee for AL-01?$0.29Jul 12, 05:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?$1.90Jul 12, 01:44 UTC
- YIELD$0.07Jul 12, 00:11 UTC
- REWARD$3.02Jul 12, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?$5.70Jul 11, 23:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?$14.67Jul 11, 22:34 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
34/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
29% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $13.75
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 6, 19:19 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 13, 12:29 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.