Wallet digest

Activity score

100/100

Performance: thin sample

Open positions

Open notional

$723.66

Total PnL

$723.66

Realised

$0.00

Win rate

n/a

too few closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 27

NO
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
295 shares @ 0.0¢·now 80.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028
$236.95
$236.95
NO
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?
85 shares @ 0.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026
$84.90
$84.90
NO
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
142 shares @ 0.0¢·now 57.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028
$81.34
$81.34
NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?
72 shares @ 0.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026
$71.78
$71.78
NO
Will Luís Marques Mendes qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
61 shares @ 0.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 18, 2026
$61.01
$61.01
NO
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the first round?
56 shares @ 0.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 25, 2026
$55.69
$55.69
NO
Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?
43 shares @ 0.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026
$42.97
$42.97
NO
Fed rate cut by January 2026 meeting?
30 shares @ 0.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026
$29.77
$29.77
NO
Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?
137 shares @ 0.0¢·now 13.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026
$18.12
$18.12
NO
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
10 shares @ 0.0¢·now 87.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028
$8.42
$8.42

Recent activity

YIELD$0.03Jul 23, 00:10 UTC
YIELD$0.03Jul 22, 00:14 UTC
YIELD$0.03Jul 21, 00:16 UTC
YIELD$0.03Jul 20, 00:10 UTC
YIELD$0.03Jul 19, 00:12 UTC
YIELD$0.03Jul 18, 00:10 UTC
YIELD$0.03Jul 17, 00:12 UTC
YIELD$0.03Jul 16, 00:17 UTC
YIELD$0.03Jul 15, 00:14 UTC
YIELD$0.03Jul 14, 00:12 UTC
YIELD$0.03Jul 13, 00:16 UTC
YIELD$0.03Jul 12, 00:17 UTC
YIELD$0.03Jul 11, 00:10 UTC
YIELD$0.03Jul 10, 00:15 UTC
YIELD$0.03Jul 9, 00:14 UTC
YIELD$0.03Jul 8, 00:22 UTC
YIELD$0.03Jul 7, 00:15 UTC
YIELD$0.03Jul 6, 00:13 UTC
YIELD$0.03Jul 5, 00:10 UTC
YIELD$0.03Jul 4, 00:12 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Do not mirror

0/100

read-only

Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.

No resolved edge sample

Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.

Late-entry profile

Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Blocked

0/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.

Wallet signal

missing

No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.

Resolved-only track record

block

Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity30 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence0 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry0 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk48 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 0
Avg trade size: $0.00
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 4, 00:16 UTC
Last active: Jul 23, 00:10 UTC
Win rate sample: 0 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 00:35:16 UTC·src:Polymarket Data