Skinny-Class
0xfc2f4f50ce2f6045d35558a5e2d8d4b2ac6610c7
Wallet digest
Activity score
77/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$22.1K
Total PnL
$-427.2K
Realised
$78.3K
Win rate
55%
143 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
36854 shares @ 29.6¢·now 28.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.5K
$-419.40
- NO
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?
16538 shares @ 47.3¢·now 32.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$5.4K
$-2.4K
- NO
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?
65572 shares @ 15.8¢·now 4.0¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$2.7K
$-7.7K
- YES
Iran leadership change by July 31?
56882 shares @ 4.9¢·now 4.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.3K
$-478.72
- YES
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
15552 shares @ 17.2¢·now 5.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$777.61
$-1.9K
- YES
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?
12085 shares @ 2.4¢·now 2.6¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$320.24
$27.06
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?
13381 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.7¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$86.98
$-716.17
- YES
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?
19982 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$69.94
$-194.08
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?
112190 shares @ 3.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$0.00
$-3.8K
- YES
Will the US next strike Iran on March 27, 2026 (ET)?
110721 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.3K
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 31, 2026?$163.88Jul 25, 03:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?$134.49Jul 25, 03:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by September 30?$303.30Jul 25, 03:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$1.6KJul 25, 01:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?$516.45Jul 25, 01:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in July?$0.15Jul 25, 01:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in July?$0.16Jul 25, 01:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in July?$0.46Jul 25, 01:01 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$7.24Jul 25, 00:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?$220.00Jul 25, 00:34 UTC
- REWARD$34.85Jul 25, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in July?$6.46Jul 24, 23:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by July 31?$1.9KJul 24, 22:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?$7.6KJul 24, 20:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by July 31?$394.33Jul 24, 18:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$9.0KJul 24, 18:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?$1.6KJul 24, 18:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by July 31?$500.00Jul 24, 18:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?$19.05Jul 24, 17:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?$0.78Jul 24, 16:58 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentLedger volume
$98.2K
Trades
3
Buy share
46%
Window
Jun 13, 13:00 UTC → Jul 12, 14:48 UTC
- BUYIran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday?$6.5K@99¢Jul 12, 14:48 UTC
- BUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$16.4K@91¢Jun 25, 15:12 UTC
- BUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?$6.1K@41¢Jun 17, 18:03 UTC
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
47/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
55% win rate over 143 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 9 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
143 closed markets, 55% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$22.9K
2 trades
Buy share
46%
Sample
limited
9 ledger trades
Top market concentration
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
$44.0K · 45% of recorded whale volume
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $740.24
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 24, 03:57 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 25, 03:32 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 143 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.