Wallet digest

active

Activity score

28/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-146.31

Realised

$-3.61

Win rate

24 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 24

UP
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 26?
250 shares @ 3.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026
$0.00
$-9.00
YES
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in July?
63 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00
YES
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 2 Spain?
56 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
UP
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 26?
55 shares @ 27.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026
$0.00
$-15.00
YES
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Belgium?
51 shares @ 9.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
YES
Exact Score: United States 0 - 1 Belgium?
45 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
DOWN
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 6?
45 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
DOWN
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on August 14?
42 shares @ 48.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 14, 2026
$0.00
$-20.00
YES
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in July?
34 shares @ 29.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00
YES
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Belgium?
33 shares @ 15.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00

Recent activity

TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on August 14?$20.42Aug 13, 20:31 UTC
REDEEMS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 12?$0.00Aug 13, 20:30 UTC
TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 12?$20.63Aug 12, 13:50 UTC
TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 12?$2.06Aug 12, 13:50 UTC
TRADESELLS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 10?$108.26Aug 10, 20:08 UTC
TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 10?$41.01Aug 10, 14:23 UTC
TRADESELLS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 10?$27.03Aug 10, 14:22 UTC
TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 10?$20.43Aug 10, 13:42 UTC
TRADESELLS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 7?$7.58Aug 7, 17:13 UTC
TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 7?$51.48Aug 7, 13:33 UTC
TRADESELLS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 6?$52.58Aug 6, 20:24 UTC
TRADESELLS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 6?$33.28Aug 6, 18:19 UTC
TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 6?$40.99Aug 6, 15:08 UTC
TRADESELLS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 5?$119.88Aug 5, 22:21 UTC
TRADESELLS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 5?$37.70Aug 5, 16:20 UTC
TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 5?$41.28Aug 5, 13:48 UTC
REDEEMWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in July?$22.73Jul 29, 22:07 UTC
REDEEMWill Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.00Jul 20, 08:13 UTC
REDEEMWill England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.00Jul 20, 08:13 UTC
REDEEMWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.00Jul 20, 08:13 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

48/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 24 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

21 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 42/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

24 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity50 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence80 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry38 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk42 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 21
Avg trade size: $33.91
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 7, 20:54 UTC
Last active: Aug 13, 20:31 UTC
Win rate sample: 24 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 04:11:22 UTC·src:Polymarket Data