Enormous-Nutmeg
0xfcbf8e8a76e2514bf6b78a9a79452e84b0a1edf5
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
83
Open notional
$4.27
Total PnL
$-535.15
Realised
$33.89
Win rate
50%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 83- YES
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
45 shares @ 17.1¢·now 5.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.49
$-5.28
- YES
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
17 shares @ 18.0¢·now 6.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.14
$-1.86
- YES
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
15 shares @ 13.7¢·now 4.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.63
$-1.37
- YES
Government shutdown on Saturday?
903 shares @ 3.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 14, 2026$0.00
$-32.00
- YES
Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% in February?
468 shares @ 3.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 11, 2026$0.00
$-16.59
- NO
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
358 shares @ 34.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-124.20
- YES
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in May?
309 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$0.00
$-2.65
- YES
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in May?
268 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$0.00
$-3.60
- YES
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or less in December?
250 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 13, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET
208 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 27, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill annual inflation be 3.9% in June?$1.04Jul 14, 00:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Core CPI YoY be 2.9% in June?$1.03Jul 14, 00:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 0.6% and 1.0%?$1.69Jul 14, 00:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21?$1.03Jun 21, 15:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Michael Jackson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?$0.18Jun 14, 03:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?$0.04Jun 14, 03:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYKnicks vs. Spurs$1.02Jun 14, 03:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYKnicks vs. Spurs$1.01Jun 14, 03:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYKnicks vs. Spurs$1.01Jun 14, 02:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?$3.57Jun 12, 23:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?$1.02Jun 12, 15:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Canada win on 2026-06-12?$2.03Jun 12, 15:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?$2.33Jun 12, 06:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw?$1.03Jun 12, 03:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?$2.01Jun 12, 03:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May?$1.04Jun 6, 07:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May?$1.04Jun 6, 07:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May?$1.04Jun 6, 07:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill annual inflation be 4.1% in May?$6.48Jun 6, 07:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May?$2.08May 27, 12:02 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
20/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 60/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $3.19
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 3, 14:41 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 00:36 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.