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MacroMulti-outcomeExpires Jan 10, 2027

Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 0.6% and 1.0%?

Probability

49¢

1h

+2.0pp

24h

+3.5pp

24h Vol

$40.00

Liquidity

$2.2K

Probability (last 7 days)

+4.0pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 11:00Apr 25, 2026, 10:52
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

 

Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 6229.1h

    LOW
  • 10:52Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 6229h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 09:00Price

    Probability up 12.5pp

    to 54¢

    MEDIUM
  • 08:00Price

    Probability up 16.0pp

    to 51¢

    MEDIUM
  • 06:00Price

    Probability up 12.0pp

    to 47¢

    MEDIUM
  • 05:00Price

    Probability up 10.0pp

    to 45¢

    MEDIUM
  • 03:00Price

    Probability up 11.0pp

    to 46¢

    MEDIUM
  • 02:00Price

    Probability up 10.5pp

    to 46¢

    MEDIUM
  • 00:00Price

    Probability up 12.5pp

    to 48¢

    MEDIUM
  • 23:00Price

    Probability up 10.5pp

    to 46¢

    MEDIUM
  • 21:00Price

    Probability up 12.0pp

    to 47¢

    MEDIUM
  • 20:00Price

    Probability up 11.5pp

    to 47¢

    MEDIUM
  • 18:00Price

    Probability up 15.0pp

    to 45¢

    MEDIUM
  • 17:00Price

    Probability up 23.5pp

    to 54¢

    MEDIUM
  • 16:00Price

    Probability up 15.5pp

    to 46¢

    MEDIUM
  • 14:00Price

    Probability up 20.0pp

    to 50¢

    MEDIUM
  • 12:00Price

    Probability up 18.5pp

    to 49¢

    MEDIUM
  • 11:00Price

    Probability up 15.0pp

    to 45¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 15.0pp

    to 45¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 17.0pp

    to 47¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 22.0pp

    to 52¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 15.5pp

    to 46¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 20.5pp

    to 51¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 17.5pp

    to 48¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 23.5pp

    to 55¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 15.0pp

    to 46¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 16.0pp

    to 47¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 10.0pp

    to 41¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 17.5pp

    to 46¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 13.0pp

    to 51¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China. This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report. The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)". Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jan 10, 2027
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to theAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (33.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

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