Spotted-Fig
0xfd0e12e8e6f33859a247c4f764250ada6f5fd918
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
14
Open notional
$10.4K
Total PnL
$1.0K
Realised
$167.06
Win rate
100%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 14- NO
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?
3000 shares @ 75.2¢·now 82.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.5K
$203.17
- NO
NATO article 5 before 2027?
2000 shares @ 85.7¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.9K
$136.67
- NO
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?
1203 shares @ 85.0¢·now 96.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$1.2K
$138.44
- NO
China x Japan military clash before 2027?
1200 shares @ 86.8¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.1K
$56.00
- NO
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?
800 shares @ 93.6¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$798.80
$50.04
- NO
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?
800 shares @ 77.4¢·now 90.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$724.00
$104.50
- NO
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
747 shares @ 81.8¢·now 90.0¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$672.14
$60.97
- NO
Will Juan Branco be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
693 shares @ 82.6¢·now 87.5¢·exp Apr 17, 2027$606.63
$34.04
- NO
Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
430 shares @ 65.4¢·now 68.5¢·exp Apr 17, 2027$294.27
$13.10
- YES
Will the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 French presidential election be canceled?
261 shares @ 88.8¢·now 93.6¢·exp Oct 11, 2026$244.17
$12.63
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Juan Branco be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?$576.58Jul 28, 23:00 UTC
- TRADESELLUS takes Panama Canal before 2027?$288.00Jul 26, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mathilde Panot be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?$18.32Jul 24, 13:30 UTC
- TRADESELLUS takes Panama Canal before 2027?$95.00Jul 24, 13:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?$225.00Jul 24, 13:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mathilde Panot be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?$40.09Jul 24, 13:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?$92.50Jul 23, 11:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?$470.76Jul 23, 10:17 UTC
- TRADESELLUS takes Panama Canal before 2027?$488.45Jul 23, 10:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?$46.00Jul 23, 09:49 UTC
- REWARD$1.15Jul 23, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?$13.27Jul 22, 21:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?$99.23Jul 22, 21:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?$117.00Jul 22, 21:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYTesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?$50.99Jul 22, 19:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYTesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?$425.41Jul 22, 16:57 UTC
- TRADESELLNATO article 5 before 2027?$920.00Jul 22, 16:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?$76.00Jul 22, 14:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?$77.00Jul 22, 14:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?$78.00Jul 22, 14:39 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
14/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 64/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $182.14
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 5, 23:15 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 23:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.