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GeopoliticsExpires Dec 31, 2026

NATO article 5 before 2027?

Probability

14¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$3.43

Liquidity

$31.5K

Probability (last 7 days)

-1.0pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 08:00Apr 25, 2026, 07:58
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

 

Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 5992.0h

    LOW
  • 07:58Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 5992h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

6
Category · Geopolitics

Market Description

If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.

Resolution & Risk

MEDIUM risk
End date
Dec 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Not specified in metadata
Market type
Binary
  • No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
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Top Holders

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