Frail-Hardship
0xfd1e5313e60942f218a6d41ecf26878567ffd6cd
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
20
Open notional
$2.47
Total PnL
$-60.46
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 20- YES
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?
2 shares @ 54.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 27, 2026$1.85
$0.85
- YES
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
2 shares @ 54.0¢·now 33.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.62
$-0.38
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET
855 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026$0.00
$-25.93
- YES
Will Fed cut interest rates 0 times in 2024?
36 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 30, 2024$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?
19 shares @ 5.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 18, 2024$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will BTC close above $104K on May 23?
9 shares @ 54.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 23, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Trump remove tariff on Canada before May?
8 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2025$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will Fed cut interest rates 2 times in 2024?
8 shares @ 13.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 30, 2024$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?
8 shares @ 53.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2025$0.00
$-4.00
- NO
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?
7 shares @ 55.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2025$0.00
$-4.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET$25.94Mar 3, 15:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill Sam Soverel win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?$1.04Mar 3, 15:10 UTC
- REDEEMUS-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?$7.41Mar 3, 15:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill Google have the top AI model on December 31?$8.00Mar 3, 15:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?$9.22Mar 3, 15:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?$1.00Nov 26, 06:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election?$1.05Nov 6, 05:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$1.00Oct 22, 03:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?$1.00Oct 22, 03:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Sam Soverel win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?$1.00Oct 22, 03:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election?$1.00Oct 22, 03:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump impose more sanctions on Russia by September 30?$3.57Oct 22, 03:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump impose more sanctions on Russia by September 30?$2.00Sep 16, 03:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kupiansk by October 31?$2.00Sep 16, 03:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill a new country join the Abraham Accords in 2025?$1.46Sep 16, 03:08 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael strikes Iran before 2026?$2.85Sep 16, 03:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump agree to a tariff agreement with European Union in July?$4.00Jul 16, 08:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the top AI model on December 31?$4.00Jul 16, 08:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael strikes Iran before 2026?$4.00Jul 16, 08:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a new country join the Abraham Accords in 2025?$4.00Jul 16, 08:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $3.88
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 18, 04:37 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 3, 15:18 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.