Pointed-Jalapeño
0xfd2b05928e63a513efda1e60d6d925b271e29ff9
Wallet digest
Activity score
79/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
52
Open notional
$21.7K
Total PnL
$-6.5K
Realised
$916.84
Win rate
60%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 52- NO
Iran leadership change by December 31?
8700 shares @ 75.9¢·now 79.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.9K
$312.61
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
4000 shares @ 85.3¢·now 90.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$3.6K
$208.00
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
4600 shares @ 85.6¢·now 76.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$3.5K
$-441.77
- NO
Will a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?
2102 shares @ 90.8¢·now 95.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$2.0K
$87.13
- NO
Will a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?
2000 shares @ 97.0¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.0K
$49.00
- YES
Will Yan Diomande join Real Madrid?
1887 shares @ 96.6¢·now 93.2¢·exp Sep 2, 2026$1.8K
$-64.75
- NO
Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?
1727 shares @ 87.9¢·now 97.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.7K
$165.68
- NO
Will Dusan Vlahovic stay at Juventus?
500 shares @ 83.0¢·now 45.5¢·exp Sep 2, 2026$227.50
$-187.50
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in July?
7710 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.3¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$19.27
$-57.82
- YES
Will Dee Valladares come in third-place on Big Brother season 28?
50 shares @ 9.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Oct 1, 2026$4.75
$0.25
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?$220.51Jul 29, 08:17 UTC
- REWARD$6.48Jul 29, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by December 31?$1.6KJul 28, 22:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYMubadala Citi DC Open: Ugo Humbert vs Andres Martin AND Mubadala Citi DC Open: Martin Damm vs Ben Shelton AND Mubadala Citi DC Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Tomas Etcheverry AND Mubadala Citi DC Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Learner Tien AND Mubadala Citi DC Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Tommy Paul AND Mubadala Citi DC Open: Arthur Fils vs Rafael Jodar$11.00Jul 28, 13:10 UTC
- TRADESELLIran leadership change by July 31?$332.20Jul 28, 07:29 UTC
- TRADESELLIran leadership change by July 31?$4.96Jul 28, 06:44 UTC
- TRADESELLIran leadership change by July 31?$180.00Jul 28, 06:24 UTC
- TRADESELLIran leadership change by July 31?$120.00Jul 28, 06:10 UTC
- TRADESELLIran leadership change by July 31?$100.00Jul 28, 05:52 UTC
- TRADESELLIran leadership change by July 31?$695.10Jul 28, 03:54 UTC
- TRADESELLIran leadership change by July 31?$198.60Jul 28, 01:52 UTC
- TRADESELLIran leadership change by July 31?$4.96Jul 28, 01:35 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.12Jul 28, 00:45 UTC
- TRADESELLIran leadership change by July 31?$97.12Jul 28, 00:16 UTC
- REWARD$7.92Jul 28, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLIran leadership change by July 31?$1.98Jul 27, 23:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Yan Diomande join Real Madrid?$26.07Jul 27, 16:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Yan Diomande join Real Madrid?$674.06Jul 27, 16:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Yan Diomande join Real Madrid?$67.62Jul 27, 16:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Yan Diomande join Real Madrid?$105.29Jul 27, 15:34 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
28/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
60% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 56/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $189.29
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 24, 17:17 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 08:17 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.