Thankful-Gallon
0xfe462bfc4d6a45bfc7bf678f4acc7c2c4adfcb39
Wallet digest
Activity score
46/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
39
Open notional
$0.24
Total PnL
$-494.81
Realised
$-13.77
Win rate
38%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 39- YES
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?
4 shares @ 28.7¢·now 5.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.24
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C on April 24?
14248 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 24, 2026$0.00
$-69.11
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 20°C on April 24?
4751 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 24, 2026$0.00
$-9.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C or below on April 24?
2863 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 24, 2026$0.00
$-5.73
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C or below on April 25?
1038 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 25, 2026$0.00
$-7.16
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 24?
375 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 25, 2026$0.00
$-7.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 27?
294 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 27, 2026$0.00
$-2.69
- YES
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?
281 shares @ 74.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$0.00
$-210.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 25?
272 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 25, 2026$0.00
$-2.99
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on April 25?
259 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 25, 2026$0.00
$-2.85
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$0.10Jul 24, 02:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?$34.58Jul 24, 02:52 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?$13.25Jul 24, 02:52 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?$36.72Jul 24, 02:50 UTC
- TRADESELLMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?$29.08Jul 12, 03:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Argentina win on 2026-07-11?$202.40Jul 12, 01:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Argentina win on 2026-07-11?$10.21Jul 12, 00:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?$12.50Jul 11, 22:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?$25.00Jul 11, 22:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June?$0.11Jul 4, 16:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June?$0.12Jul 4, 16:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1?$28.31Jul 4, 16:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?$25.35Jul 3, 00:03 UTC
- TRADESELLOver $15M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?$6.14Jun 30, 21:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYOver $15M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?$12.68Jun 30, 05:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1?$25.15Jun 29, 21:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?$25.00Jun 29, 01:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?$0.14Jun 28, 19:22 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$25.74Jun 23, 22:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June?$5.52Jun 23, 22:57 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
18/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
38% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $18.47
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 13, 01:50 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 24, 02:53 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.