GeopoliticsExpires Dec 31, 2026

Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?

Probability

17¢

+0.0pp

24h

-3.5pp

24h Vol

$237.86

Liquidity

$29.2K

Probability (last 7 days)

-4.5pp 7d

Apr 18, 2026, 07:00Apr 25, 2026, 05:15

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice

0s agoResolve
Market resolves in 6006.7h
LOW
05:15Signal
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 6007h with open resolution ambiguity.
LOW
05:00Price
Probability down -4.5pp
to 17¢
MEDIUM
03:00Price
Probability down -4.5pp
to 17¢
MEDIUM
02:00Price
Probability down -4.5pp
to 17¢
MEDIUM
00:00Price
Probability down -3.0pp
to 17¢
MEDIUM
22:00Price
Probability down -3.0pp
to 17¢
MEDIUM
21:00Price
Probability down -3.0pp
to 17¢
MEDIUM
20:00Price
Probability down -3.0pp
to 17¢
MEDIUM
18:00Price
Probability down -3.0pp
to 17¢
MEDIUM
17:00Price
Probability down -3.0pp
to 17¢
MEDIUM
15:00Price
Probability down -3.0pp
to 17¢
MEDIUM

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

Same eventUkraine election held by...?

Category · Geopolitics

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if national elections for the parliament and/or presidency of Ukraine are held between February 12, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market is based on whether national elections are actually held in Ukraine within the specified dates. Merely scheduling an election will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". If elections are officially scheduled for a date outside this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: Dec 31, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Not specified in metadata
Market type: Binary

No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

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Top Holders

20 wallets

YES

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