Fuzzy-Draft
0xfe9339e4eca140c1a16f94a52b5cde4d29768d0e
Wallet digest
Activity score
82/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$1.5K
Total PnL
$-334.08
Realised
$26.45
Win rate
63%
38 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will "The Hawk: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?
43 shares @ 75.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$43.32
$10.81
- NO
UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026?
41 shares @ 83.5¢·now 95.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$39.24
$4.99
- NO
Consensys IPO closing market cap above $3B?
39 shares @ 57.5¢·now 89.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$34.91
$12.48
- NO
Felix Protocol FDV above $50M one day after launch?
33 shares @ 56.6¢·now 93.7¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$30.90
$12.23
- NO
Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
26 shares @ 78.5¢·now 96.8¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$24.74
$4.68
- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 29?
24 shares @ 71.0¢·now 98.8¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$23.70
$6.66
- NO
Will Pacifica launch a token by September 30 2026?
24 shares @ 65.5¢·now 95.2¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$23.30
$7.26
- NO
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31?
23 shares @ 76.3¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$23.24
$5.45
- YES
Will Hertz (HTZ) beat quarterly earnings?
50 shares @ 40.1¢·now 44.5¢·exp Aug 6, 2026$22.25
$2.22
- NO
Pacifica FDV above $500M one day after launch?
23 shares @ 75.0¢·now 93.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$21.39
$4.14
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Air Force" or "Space Force" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?$6.89Jul 28, 20:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Supreme Court" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?$15.00Jul 28, 20:32 UTC
- REDEEMSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down on July 28?$48.66Jul 28, 20:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Alien" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of July 27?$1.92Jul 28, 19:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 28, 2026?$15.00Jul 28, 18:33 UTC
- REDEEMBNB Up or Down on July 28?$15.00Jul 28, 16:47 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - July 28, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET$15.00Jul 28, 16:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump post "World Cup" on Truth Social this week?$22.70Jul 28, 15:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYNVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on July 28?$11.50Jul 28, 15:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on July 28?$5.61Jul 28, 15:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $83 on July 28?$7.29Jul 28, 15:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - July 28, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET$9.75Jul 28, 15:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - July 28, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET$3.45Jul 28, 15:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYNVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on July 28?$3.36Jul 28, 15:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Katherine Clark be the MA-05 Democratic nominee?$0.65Jul 28, 14:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on July 28?$13.68Jul 28, 14:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down on July 28?$3.96Jul 28, 13:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down on July 28?$4.14Jul 28, 13:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Venezuela" during cabinet meeting?$5.49Jul 28, 13:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Google (GOOGL) close above $320 on July 28?$6.37Jul 28, 13:37 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
80/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
63% win rate over 38 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 27/100.
38 closed markets, 63% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $5.48
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 20:16 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 20:35 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 38 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.