0xfea9cd8d714b3b267beb48d57667a92887ca7a25
0xfea9cd8d714b3b267beb48d57667a92887ca7a25
Wallet digest
Activity score
59/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
15
Open notional
$55.88
Total PnL
$-47.50
Realised
$-12.65
Win rate
29%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- YES
Trump meets with Putin by September 30?
348 shares @ 9.0¢·now 6.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$22.64
$-8.71
- YES
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?
146 shares @ 17.1¢·now 5.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$8.03
$-17.01
- YES
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?
58 shares @ 21.4¢·now 12.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$6.95
$-5.42
- NO
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?
13 shares @ 49.0¢·now 48.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$6.27
$-0.13
- NO
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?
4 shares @ 75.0¢·now 81.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$3.11
$0.23
- NO
Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
3 shares @ 51.3¢·now 94.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$2.36
$1.08
- YES
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?
12 shares @ 16.5¢·now 18.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.21
$0.24
- YES
Will Pat McFadden be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?
10 shares @ 13.8¢·now 14.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.38
$0.03
- YES
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?
64 shares @ 3.2¢·now 1.8¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$1.12
$-0.95
- YES
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
4 shares @ 27.0¢·now 18.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.74
$-0.34
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Marine Le Pen be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election?$9.25Jul 14, 12:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?$1.01Jul 14, 07:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?$0.96Jul 14, 06:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?$0.46Jul 13, 21:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?$0.12Jul 13, 21:33 UTC
- TRADESELLIran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?$0.01Jul 13, 19:54 UTC
- TRADESELLIran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?$0.03Jul 13, 19:54 UTC
- TRADESELLIran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?$0.03Jul 13, 19:54 UTC
- TRADESELLIran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?$0.02Jul 13, 19:54 UTC
- TRADESELLIran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?$0.13Jul 13, 19:54 UTC
- TRADESELLIran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?$0.20Jul 13, 19:54 UTC
- TRADESELLIran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?$1.52Jul 13, 19:54 UTC
- TRADESELLIran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?$0.00Jul 13, 19:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?$0.00Jul 13, 16:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill the US announce a blockade on Iran by August 31?$0.00Jul 13, 16:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?$2.34Jul 13, 11:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?$3.46Jul 13, 11:54 UTC
- TRADESELLIran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday?$0.02Jul 13, 08:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday?$0.39Jul 12, 14:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?$2.12Jul 12, 13:53 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
21/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
29% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $3.59
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 9, 03:44 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 12:44 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.