Where can I see the live data, signals, and large-trade flow for this market?

Orrery's per-market terminal at https://orrery.me/markets/will-marine-le-pen-be-the-national-rallys-candidate-for-the-2027-french-presidential-election renders a 7-day probability chart, recent trades scoped to this market, top YES/NO holders, all firing signals (momentum / divergence / flow / resolution-risk), and an AI-generated movement explanation. A machine-readable Markdown summary is available at https://orrery.me/markets/will-marine-le-pen-be-the-national-rallys-candidate-for-the-2027-french-presidential-election/markdown.

PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires Apr 23, 2027

Creator

Will Marine Le Pen be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election?

Probability

20¢

+0.0pp

24h

-2.5pp

24h Vol

$64.60

Liquidity

$6.6K

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

Markets Detail Watchlist Alert Brief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: Apr 23, 2027
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type: Multi-outcome (neg-risk)

Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.

Share risk card Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-2.5pp 7d

20¢

Jun 11, 2026, 22:00 UTCJun 18, 2026, 21:41 UTC

updated 21:41:24 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-06-18T21-41Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors

01
Price move
Down 3pp over 24h
Now 20¢; flat in the last hour.
02
Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $6.6k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: Apr 23, 2027
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type: Multi-outcome (neg-risk)

Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.

Share risk card Read full market rules on Polymarket

Verification Brief

A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.

live monitoring

Trust transition

The market is live. Track source, liquidity, and wording before escalating it to a resolution-sensitive task.

Create trust-state alert

Verification goal

Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.

What needs proof

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: consensus of credible reporting

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Telegram verification task

Orrery verification task Will Marine Le Pen be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election? State: Live — live monitoring Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification thread

Orrery verification brief Will Marine Le Pen be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election? State: live monitoring Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Guided source review

A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.

Sources

Criteria covered

Reviewed

Awaiting review

Submit a source mapped to a criterion

Recent source checks

Pilot audit summary

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

Apr 23, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution
Market resolves in 7394.3h
LOW

Price movement

-2.5pp over the last 24h, now 20¢.

updated 21:41:24 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flow Browse related markets Alert me on the next trade

updated 21:41:24 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

Same event2027 French Presidential Election: National Rally Candidate

Category · Politics

Market Description

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. This market will resolve according to the first individual publicly announced as the chosen candidate of the National Rally (Rassemblement National, RN) party for the 2027 French presidential election. A qualifying announcement must explicitly identify the relevant individual as the National Rally Party’s candidate for the 2027 French presidential election. If the National Rally party simultaneously announces multiple individuals as its candidates for the 2027 French presidential election, this market will resolve to “Multiple Candidates”. If no qualifying announcement is made by the time the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election is released, this market will resolve to the National Rally candidate included on that list. If multiple National Rally candidates are included on that list, this market will resolve to “Multiple Candidates”. If no National Rally candidate is included on that list, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the National Rally party; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Marine Le Pen be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election?"?

As of Thu, 18 Jun 2026 21:41:24 GMT, YES is priced at 20% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -2.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -2.5pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Apr 23, 2027 (2027-04-23T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$64.60 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $2.0K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $6.6K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 2.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets

YES

Open on Polymarket