Tired-Inlaws
0xfedc381bf3fb5d20433bb4a0216b15dbbc5c6398
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
27
Open notional
$40.3K
Total PnL
$17.5K
Realised
$23.3K
Win rate
88%
25 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 27- YES
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1288704 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$8.4K
$-322.18
- YES
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1063463 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.8¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$8.0K
$-4.1K
- YES
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
877419 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$5.7K
$438.71
- YES
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
904012 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$5.0K
$-307.36
- YES
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
585434 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$3.8K
$-490.01
- YES
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1081768 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$3.8K
$-829.72
- YES
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
249880 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.6K
$93.20
- YES
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
217790 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$762.26
$1.74
- YES
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
188233 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$658.81
$-158.49
- YES
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
251089 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$627.72
$-179.53
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$0.00Jul 25, 07:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$0.00Jul 25, 07:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$0.00Jul 25, 07:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$0.01Jul 25, 07:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$0.00Jul 25, 07:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$0.00Jul 25, 07:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$0.02Jul 25, 07:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$0.01Jul 25, 07:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$0.01Jul 25, 07:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$0.00Jul 25, 07:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$0.00Jul 25, 07:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$0.00Jul 25, 07:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$0.01Jul 25, 07:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$0.01Jul 25, 07:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$0.00Jul 25, 07:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$0.01Jul 25, 07:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$0.00Jul 25, 07:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$1.78Jul 25, 07:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$0.01Jul 25, 07:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$0.00Jul 25, 07:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
48/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
88% win rate over 25 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 1 ledger trades, copy-risk 25/100.
25 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
0%
Sample
low
1 ledger trades
Top market concentration
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
$7.5K · 100% of recorded whale volume
Recorded market concentration
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.08
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 25, 06:53 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 25, 07:42 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 25 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.