Polished-Pirate
0xfee75ff91dc8587594c2a7b626279cf7670f867e
Wallet digest
Activity score
81/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
15
Open notional
$18.34
Total PnL
$0.89
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- YES
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
11 shares @ 15.0¢·now 21.5¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$2.41
$0.73
- YES
Will Australia be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup?
9 shares @ 11.0¢·now 24.5¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$2.23
$1.23
- YES
Will United States be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup?
4 shares @ 51.0¢·now 49.5¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$1.94
$-0.06
- UNDER
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5
3 shares @ 56.0¢·now 55.5¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$1.75
$-0.02
- YES
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
19 shares @ 5.2¢·now 6.3¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$1.22
$0.22
- YES
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
9 shares @ 11.3¢·now 12.6¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$1.11
$0.11
- YES
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime?
3 shares @ 29.0¢·now 28.5¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.98
$-0.02
- YES
Japan to win the second half?
2 shares @ 52.0¢·now 51.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.98
$-0.02
- YES
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?
5 shares @ 21.0¢·now 20.5¢·exp Jun 20, 2026$0.98
$-0.02
- YES
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?
2 shares @ 58.0¢·now 56.5¢·exp Jun 20, 2026$0.97
$-0.03
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5$1.79Jun 20, 05:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?$1.03Jun 20, 05:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?$2.25Jun 20, 05:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYNetherlands vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime?$1.02Jun 20, 04:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYJapan to win the second half?$1.01Jun 20, 04:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYEcuador vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime?$1.02Jun 20, 04:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?$1.02Jun 20, 04:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYKai Havertz: 1+ goals$1.02Jun 20, 04:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?$1.01Jun 20, 04:50 UTC
- REDEEMBrazil vs. Haiti: Draw at halftime?$0.00Jun 20, 04:49 UTC
- REDEEMScotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score$3.43Jun 20, 00:11 UTC
- REDEEMScotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5$3.13Jun 20, 00:11 UTC
- TRADESELLUnited States vs. Australia: Draw at halftime?$0.12Jun 19, 19:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYScotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score$1.95Jun 19, 15:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?$1.76Jun 19, 15:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay?$1.03Jun 19, 15:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYScotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5$1.02Jun 19, 15:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYUnited States vs. Australia: Draw at halftime?$1.02Jun 19, 15:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBrazil vs. Haiti: Draw at halftime?$1.02Jun 19, 15:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?$0.00Jun 19, 04:54 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
31 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $1.16
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 15, 04:33 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 20, 05:07 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.