Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?
Probability
50¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-2.5pp
24h Vol
$14.92
Liquidity
$4.3K
Probability (last 7 days)
-4.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Down 3pp over 24h
Now 50¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $4.3k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1231.8h
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 50¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 50¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 53¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 53¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 52¢
- 19:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 53¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 50¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 50¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 50¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 50¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 50¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 50¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
In the upcoming game, scheduled for June 15, 2026 If IR Iran wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 16, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- official statisticsOfficial statisticsfifa.com
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.