Tempting-Rabbit-Waiver
0xff86d2ebadb4e559a27ed3409be9620eef192900
Wallet digest
Activity score
56/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
26
Open notional
$18.15
Total PnL
$-6.84
Realised
$0.24
Win rate
33%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 26- NO
Iran full airspace closure by July 27?
1 shares @ 79.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Jul 27, 2026$1.16
$0.16
- NO
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
4 shares @ 23.0¢·now 25.4¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$1.11
$0.11
- NO
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 29?
2 shares @ 55.0¢·now 60.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$1.10
$0.10
- NO
Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?
2 shares @ 64.1¢·now 68.5¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$1.08
$0.07
- YES
Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 31, 2026?
1 shares @ 87.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.05
$0.05
- NO
Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2026
1 shares @ 84.0¢·now 83.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.99
$-0.01
- NO
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
1 shares @ 68.0¢·now 67.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.99
$-0.01
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in July?
2 shares @ 53.0¢·now 52.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.99
$-0.01
- NO
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
1 shares @ 76.6¢·now 75.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.98
$-0.02
- YES
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
4 shares @ 24.0¢·now 23.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.98
$-0.02
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in July?$1.02Jul 25, 10:20 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$1.38Jul 25, 08:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 29?$1.00Jul 25, 07:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 31, 2026?$1.00Jul 25, 07:00 UTC
- REDEEMIran full airspace closure by July 24?$2.30Jul 25, 06:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 92m and 98m?$1.03Jul 25, 03:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$0.96Jul 25, 02:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 86m and 92m?$0.89Jul 25, 00:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 86m and 92m?$1.03Jul 25, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?$1.00Jul 25, 00:10 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?$1.22Jul 24, 20:59 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?$1.12Jul 24, 19:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$1.04Jul 24, 16:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$1.01Jul 24, 15:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 27?$1.00Jul 24, 15:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$1.87Jul 24, 15:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$1.00Jul 24, 15:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next Claude Opus model be released by July 27, 2026?$0.37Jul 24, 15:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?$1.00Jul 24, 15:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next Claude Opus model be released by July 29, 2026?$0.23Jul 24, 14:55 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
22/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $0.97
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 22, 19:00 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 25, 10:20 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.