Sweet-Wait
0xffb1816d69154c49fbfb46e206b59eed0cc1f54e
Wallet digest
Activity score
51/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
25
Open notional
$139.03
Total PnL
$-88.28
Realised
$-4.11
Win rate
0%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 25- YES
Will Hibachi launch a token by December 31, 2026?
89 shares @ 37.9¢·now 24.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$21.37
$-12.39
- YES
LA28 Olympics run as scheduled?
20 shares @ 90.3¢·now 88.8¢·exp Jul 25, 2028$17.77
$-0.29
- YES
Copper cable hit with Sec. 232 tariffs by December 31, 2027?
40 shares @ 39.0¢·now 33.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$13.40
$-2.20
- YES
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?
37 shares @ 28.0¢·now 33.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$12.15
$1.82
- YES
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?
50 shares @ 24.0¢·now 24.0¢·exp Oct 28, 2026$12.00
$0.00
- YES
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?
69 shares @ 24.8¢·now 16.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.45
$-5.73
- YES
Will CXMT’s closing IPO market cap be at least 3T yuan?
20 shares @ 50.0¢·now 52.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.50
$0.50
- YES
Will Apple TV win the most Emmys?
40 shares @ 20.0¢·now 19.9¢·exp Sep 14, 2026$7.96
$-0.04
- YES
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?
15 shares @ 39.3¢·now 45.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$6.91
$0.87
- YES
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?
57 shares @ 13.7¢·now 10.9¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$6.21
$-1.58
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026?$2.75Jul 24, 08:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill CXMT’s closing IPO market cap be at least 3T yuan?$10.00Jul 24, 01:37 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$3.42Jul 24, 00:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rebecca Cooke be the WI-03 Democratic nominee?$1.33Jul 24, 00:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYLA28 Olympics run as scheduled?$18.06Jul 24, 00:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rebecca Cooke be the WI-03 Democratic nominee?$0.07Jul 24, 00:35 UTC
- REWARD$6.46Jul 24, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYCopper cable hit with Sec. 232 tariffs by December 31, 2027?$7.80Jul 23, 23:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYCopper cable hit with Sec. 232 tariffs by December 31, 2027?$4.29Jul 23, 23:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYCopper cable hit with Sec. 232 tariffs by December 31, 2027?$3.51Jul 23, 23:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democrats win the Arizona Secretary of State race in 2026?$2.46Jul 23, 22:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?$12.00Jul 23, 22:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple TV win the most Emmys?$8.00Jul 23, 21:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?$10.50Jul 23, 21:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?$10.33Jul 23, 21:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?$1.29Jul 23, 21:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Apple TV win the most Emmys?$11.52Jul 23, 21:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?$23.95Jul 23, 21:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?$1.32Jul 23, 21:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?$13.00Jul 23, 21:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
20/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $9.45
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 23, 16:58 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 24, 08:04 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.