Wallet digest

active

Activity score

31/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-1.2K

Realised

$-81.65

Win rate

56 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 56

UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET
435 shares @ 4.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026
$0.00
$-18.47
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET
417 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET
387 shares @ 10.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026
$0.00
$-40.00
YES
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
250 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET
250 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET
143 shares @ 14.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026
$0.00
$-20.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET
136 shares @ 15.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026
$0.00
$-21.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET
121 shares @ 37.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026
$0.00
$-45.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET
112 shares @ 42.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026
$0.00
$-48.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET
111 shares @ 36.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026
$0.00
$-40.00

Recent activity

TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET$3.10Aug 8, 09:29 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET$5.23Jul 9, 23:55 UTC
TRADESELLExact Score: France 2 - 0 Morocco?$3.71Jul 9, 21:45 UTC
TRADESELLExact Score: France 2 - 1 Morocco?$0.88Jul 9, 21:35 UTC
TRADEBUYExact Score: France 1 - 2 Morocco?$1.03Jul 8, 17:01 UTC
TRADEBUYExact Score: France 2 - 1 Morocco?$1.03Jul 8, 17:00 UTC
TRADEBUYExact Score: France 1 - 1 Morocco?$1.03Jul 8, 16:59 UTC
TRADEBUYExact Score: France 2 - 0 Morocco?$1.03Jul 8, 16:59 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET$9.95Jul 4, 21:44 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$7.32Jul 4, 21:42 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET$10.76Jul 4, 21:40 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET$1.03Jul 4, 21:38 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET$7.11Jul 4, 21:37 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET$14.66Jul 4, 21:34 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET$7.08Jul 4, 21:32 UTC
REDEEMT20 Series England vs India: England vs India$7.00Jul 4, 19:13 UTC
TRADEBUYT20 Series England vs India: England vs India$3.15Jul 4, 16:19 UTC
TRADEBUYAsuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt$9.16Jun 17, 20:10 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET$9.53Jun 17, 20:02 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET$6.29Jun 17, 20:00 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

62/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

2% win rate over 56 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 29/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

56 closed markets, 2% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity54 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry64 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk29 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 47
Avg trade size: $13.32
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 5, 09:30 UTC
Last active: Aug 8, 09:29 UTC
Win rate sample: 56 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 19:40:20 UTC·src:Polymarket Data