Spry-Folder
0xffd5700f7480b2cb6b1caa4b92a637b7a047bdd1
Wallet digest
Activity score
67/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
16
Open notional
$10.50
Total PnL
$-18.35
Realised
$2.29
Win rate
67%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 16- YES
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
3 shares @ 91.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$3.28
$0.28
- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
1 shares @ 85.0¢·now 95.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.12
$0.12
- YES
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?
1 shares @ 96.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$1.04
$0.04
- YES
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $68 on June 30?
1 shares @ 97.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.03
$0.03
- YES
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
1 shares @ 97.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.03
$0.03
- YES
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
1 shares @ 99.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.01
$0.01
- NO
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1 shares @ 89.0¢·now 88.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.00
$-0.00
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
1 shares @ 86.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.99
$-0.01
- YES
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31?
630 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2025$0.00
$-7.04
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 4PM ET
250 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 20, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?$1.00Jun 30, 02:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$1.00Jun 30, 02:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $68 on June 30?$1.00Jun 30, 02:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$2.01Jun 30, 02:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$1.00Jun 30, 02:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$1.00Jun 30, 02:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$1.00Jun 30, 02:38 UTC
- REDEEMRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31?$1.02Feb 28, 15:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31?$1.02Feb 28, 15:25 UTC
- REDEEMRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30?$1.04Feb 28, 15:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in October?$1.06Feb 28, 15:25 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Venezuela military engagement by October 31?$1.08Feb 28, 15:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?$1.08Feb 28, 15:25 UTC
- REDEEMKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?$1.14Feb 28, 15:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Government shutdown end October 23-26?$1.19Feb 28, 15:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30?$1.00Oct 31, 14:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?$1.00Oct 31, 14:43 UTC
- TRADESELLXi Jinping out in 2025?$1.33Oct 21, 07:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31?$1.00Oct 21, 00:42 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 7PM ET$1.11Oct 21, 00:39 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
19/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $1.53
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Oct 20, 20:51 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 30, 02:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.