0xfffadf38a520cd5a0035ff52d7fceb436a08864b
0xfffadf38a520cd5a0035ff52d7fceb436a08864b
Wallet digest
Activity score
94/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
17
Open notional
$694.4K
Total PnL
$-66.1K
Realised
$23.2K
Win rate
75%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 17- NO
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
360332 shares @ 90.8¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$326.1K
$-1.3K
- NO
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
81363 shares @ 90.6¢·now 98.4¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$80.0K
$6.3K
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
84678 shares @ 83.2¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$76.6K
$6.1K
- NO
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?
39563 shares @ 94.2¢·now 97.0¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$38.4K
$1.1K
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
43135 shares @ 76.5¢·now 76.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$33.0K
$-2.11
- YES
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
35304 shares @ 85.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$30.2K
$176.52
- NO
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?
30145 shares @ 81.6¢·now 94.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$28.3K
$3.7K
- YES
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?
20600 shares @ 98.1¢·now 98.0¢·exp Sep 6, 2026$20.2K
$-19.22
- NO
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
21980 shares @ 83.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$19.0K
$769.29
- NO
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?
16097 shares @ 96.9¢·now 99.6¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$16.0K
$442.58
Recent activity
- YIELD$4.38Jul 29, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$4.40Jul 28, 00:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$1.4KJul 27, 10:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?$2.5KJul 27, 10:54 UTC
- YIELD$4.38Jul 27, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$4.36Jul 26, 00:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?$3.8KJul 25, 06:10 UTC
- YIELD$4.36Jul 25, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$4.37Jul 24, 00:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?$1.7KJul 23, 00:21 UTC
- YIELD$4.36Jul 23, 00:13 UTC
- REWARD$18.59Jul 23, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?$24.27Jul 22, 22:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?$40.45Jul 22, 21:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?$809.09Jul 22, 20:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?$1.6KJul 22, 20:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?$404.55Jul 22, 19:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?$80.91Jul 22, 19:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?$4.83Jul 22, 18:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?$178.00Jul 22, 18:24 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
13/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
75% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
85%
Sample
limited
8 ledger trades
Top market concentration
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
$27.6K · 23% of recorded whale volume
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $1.2K
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 21, 20:49 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.