Iran closes its airspace by June 30?UMA DISPUTED
High
Orrery — the verification layer for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
4 observations · 32 resolution risks
VERIFICATION QUEUERanked checks before you trust the price.
Full research queue Recommended next check
Start here: Verify the resolution source and event-cluster siblings1Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Resolves in 34h — verify the source
Verify
2Will Thailand win on 2026-06-05?
Expired — settlement verification still pending upstream
Verify
3Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner
Resolves in 4h — verify the source
Verify
4Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1
Resolves in 6h — verify the source
Verify
5Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Expired — settlement verification still pending upstream
Verify
ACTIVE VERIFICATION TARGET
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander ZverevHIGH EVIDENCE
Active target: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
6% 18.0pp
24h volume
$4.3M
Verification targetHistory unavailable
100%75%50%25%0%
Price history unavailable
WHY THIS IS ACTIVE
Orrery is prioritizing this market because price movement, volume, and evidence context make it worth checking before reading the price as information.
18.0pp24h move$4.3M24h volumeVerifysource and settlement path
EVIDENCE ACTIONS
All signals 1Open
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander ZverevQueue proof
24h Δ -18.0pp, 1h Δ -18.0pp · Turnover 29.2× liquidity
2Open
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?
24h Δ -13.8pp, 1h Δ -0.3pp · Turnover 2.3× liquidity
4Open
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
24h Δ 3.0pp, 1h Δ 0.5pp · Turnover 2.7× liquidity
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch High
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Will China PR win on 2026-06-05?UMA PENDING
High
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Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 90 | 95/83 96/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 88 | 95/86 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 80 | 76/85 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 73 | 71/83 60/80 | Inspect timeline |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFJune 5, 2026
Read full brief - Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev probability down 18.0pp on $4.3M of 24h volume.
- Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? resolves in 2h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
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