High
Orrery — decision terminal for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
5 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue 1Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
2Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
3US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
Resolves in 19h — verify the source
Verify
4US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Resolves in 19h — verify the source
Verify
5Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners
Event date has passed while the market is still active upstream
Verify
HIGH-EVIDENCE OBSERVATIONS
All signals 1Open
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?Top read
24h Δ -11.0pp, 1h Δ -1.0pp · Turnover 16.3× liquidity
2Open
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
24h Δ 4.6pp, 1h Δ 1.5pp · Turnover 4.3× liquidity
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch Iran closes its airspace by May 31?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
—
—
New York Yankees vs. AthleticsPAST EVENT
—
—
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 87 | 95/82 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 76 | 58/87 96/80 | Compare siblings | |
| 74 | 76/82 56/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 71 | 52/87 80/80 | Compare siblings | |
| 71 | 52/87 80/80 | Compare siblings |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 30, 2026
Read full brief - US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? probability down 11.0pp on $1.3M of 24h volume.
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? resolves in 11h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
- —
WATCHLIST DELTA
Watchlist sits in your browser — we don't store it server-side. Add markets you want to track, then this panel shows the since-last-visit delta for each.
Set up watchlistORRERY PRO
Prediction-market intelligence terminal
Know what moved, why it matters, what can go wrong, and what to verify next. Built for humans, teams, and AI agents.