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Orrery — decision terminal for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
5 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue 1Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets
Event date has passed while the market is still active upstream
Verify
2US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
Resolves in 24h — verify the source
Verify
3Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians
Event date has passed while the market is still active upstream
Verify
4US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Resolves in 24h — verify the source
Verify
5Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles
Event date has passed while the market is still active upstream
Verify
MARKET PULSE
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?HIGH EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest divergence observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
67% 12.8pp
24h volume
$414.9K
Orrery Pulse100% current26-100% 7D range+50.0pp net move
100%75%50%25%0%
100%
May 29100%+50.0pp from start
May 28May 28May 28May 28May 29May 29May 29May 29
HIGH-EVIDENCE OBSERVATIONS
All signals 2Open
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?
24h Δ 3.5pp, 1h Δ 0.1pp · Turnover 1.3× liquidity
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch High
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-05-29?UMA PENDING
High
High
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston AstrosPAST EVENT
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Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland GuardiansPAST EVENT
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Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay RaysPAST EVENT
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Miami Marlins vs. New York MetsPAST EVENT
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Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore OriolesPAST EVENT
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Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPAST EVENT
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Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati RedsPAST EVENT
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Canadiens vs. HurricanesPAST EVENT
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Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)PAST EVENT
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Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80 | 64/91 98/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 78 | 80/80 72/80 | Compare siblings | |
| 71 | 52/87 80/80 | Compare siblings | |
| 70 | 54/87 74/80 | Compare siblings | |
| 68 | 50/81 80/80 | Compare siblings |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 30, 2026
Read full brief - Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? probability down 19.0pp on $0.2M of 24h volume.
- MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? shows a divergence pattern at 80% evidence — verify on the market.
- Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? resolves in 16h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
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WATCHLIST DELTA
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