Iran closes its airspace by June 30?UMA DISPUTED
High
Orrery — the verification layer for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
2 observations · 32 resolution risks
VERIFICATION QUEUERanked checks before you trust the price.
Full research queue Recommended next check
Start here: Verify the resolution source and event-cluster siblings1Bitcoin Up or Down on June 5?
Resolves in 2h — verify the source
Verify
2Will Thailand win on 2026-06-05?
Expired — settlement verification still pending upstream
Verify
3Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Expired — settlement verification still pending upstream
Verify
4Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev
Divergence observation
Divergence
5Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Resolves in 34h — verify the source
Verify
ACTIVE VERIFICATION TARGET
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander ZverevHIGH EVIDENCE
Active target: strongest divergence observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
13% 11.0pp
24h volume
$3.6M
Verification target51% current51-51% 7D range+0.0pp net move
59%55%51%46%42%
51%
Jun 551%+0.0pp from start
Jun 4Jun 4Jun 4Jun 4Jun 4Jun 4Jun 4Jun 5
WHY THIS IS ACTIVE
Orrery is prioritizing this market because price movement, volume, and evidence context make it worth checking before reading the price as information.
11.0pp24h move$3.6M24h volumeVerifysource and settlement path
RESOLUTION RISK
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Will China PR win on 2026-06-05?UMA PENDING
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Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 83 | 82/89 80/80 | Compare siblings | |
| 82 | 81/85 80/80 | Inspect timeline |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFJune 5, 2026
Read full brief - Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? probability up 20.5pp on $0.2M of 24h volume.
- Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev shows a divergence pattern at 82% evidence — verify on the market.
- Bitcoin Up or Down on June 5? resolves in 2h — verify the source before treating as research.
IGNORE (0)
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