Iran closes its airspace by May 31?UMA DISPUTED
High
Orrery — decision terminal for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
6 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue 1LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs
Resolves in 3h — verify the source
Verify
2Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Momentum observation
Momentum
3Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
4US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Expired — settlement verification still pending upstream
Verify
5US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?
Momentum observation
Momentum
MARKET PULSE
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?HIGH EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
64% 39.1pp
24h volume
$1.2M
Orrery Pulse50% current50-50% 7D range+0.0pp net move
59%54%50%46%42%
50%
May 3150%+0.0pp from start
May 30May 31May 31May 31May 31May 31May 31May 31
HIGH-EVIDENCE OBSERVATIONS
All signals 1Open
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?Top read
24h Δ 39.1pp, 1h Δ 0.7pp · Turnover 4.2× liquidity
2Open
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?
24h Δ -8.9pp, 1h Δ -0.1pp · Turnover 6.4× liquidity
3Open
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev
24h Δ 5.0pp, 1h Δ 5.0pp · Turnover 68.2× liquidity
5Open
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
24h Δ 4.5pp, 1h Δ 4.0pp · Turnover 8.2× liquidity
6Open
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca
24h Δ 5.0pp, 1h Δ 1.0pp · Turnover 1.4× liquidity
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch High
High
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 1 WinnerUMA PENDING
High
High
High
Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2026-05-31?UMA PENDING
High
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 2 WinnerUMA PENDING
High
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
High
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?UMA DISPUTED
High
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 92 | 95/91 98/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 88 | 91/81 98/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 81 | 76/78 96/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 80 | 78/83 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 79 | 65/100 80/80 | Compare siblings |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 31, 2026
Read full brief - Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? probability up 39.1pp on $1.2M of 24h volume.
- Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 3 Winner resolves in 2h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
- —
WATCHLIST DELTA
Watchlist sits in your browser — we don't store it server-side. Add markets you want to track, then this panel shows the since-last-visit delta for each.
Set up watchlistORRERY PRO
Prediction-market intelligence terminal
Know what moved, why it matters, what can go wrong, and what to verify next. Built for humans, teams, and AI agents.