High
Orrery — decision terminal for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
6 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue 1Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
Resolves in 55h — verify the source
Verify
2Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage
UMA proposed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
3Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?
Resolves in 55h — verify the source
Verify
4US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Resolves in 55h — verify the source
Verify
5US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?
Expired — settlement verification still pending upstream
Verify
MARKET PULSE
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?HIGH EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest divergence observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
18% 11.5pp
24h volume
$355.1K
Orrery Pulse33% current31-69% 7D range-27.5pp net move
76%63%50%37%24%
33%
May 2833%-27.5pp from start
May 27May 28May 28May 28May 28May 28May 28May 28
HIGH-EVIDENCE OBSERVATIONS
All signals 1Open 2Open 3Open 4Open 5Open 6Open
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Top read
24h Δ 8.6pp, 1h Δ 0.5pp · Turnover 4.4× liquidity
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?
24h Δ -6.0pp, 1h Δ -6.0pp · Turnover 19.5× liquidity
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Roman Andres Burruchaga
24h Δ 6.0pp, 1h Δ 24.0pp · Turnover 2.6× liquidity
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?
24h Δ 11.5pp · 1h Δ -5.2pp
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?
24h Δ -5.0pp, 1h Δ -1.0pp · Turnover 2.8× liquidity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
24h Δ -6.0pp, 1h Δ -2.0pp · Turnover 1.7× liquidity
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch Iran closes its airspace by May 31?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
Will Donald Trump dance on May 25, 2026?UMA DISPUTED
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
Roland Garros WTA: Ann Li vs Diane ParryUMA PENDING
High
—
—
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 87 | 90/79 98/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 81 | 81/83 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 81 | 77/89 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 81 | 78/86 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 79 | 80/81 72/80 | Compare siblings |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 28, 2026
Read full brief - Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? probability up 11.5pp on $0.4M of 24h volume.
- MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? shows a momentum pattern at 90% evidence — verify on the market.
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 resolves in 1h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
- —
WATCHLIST DELTA
Watchlist sits in your browser — we don't store it server-side. Add markets you want to track, then this panel shows the since-last-visit delta for each.
Set up watchlistORRERY PRO
Prediction-market intelligence terminal
Know what moved, why it matters, what can go wrong, and what to verify next. Built for humans, teams, and AI agents.