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5 things to verify
6 observations · 32 resolution risks
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Full research queue Verify the resolution source before reading price moves as info
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MARKET PULSE
Houston Astros vs. Chicago CubsHIGH EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
92% 48.5pp
24h volume
$464.4K
Orrery Pulse50% current50-51% 7D range-1.0pp net move
59%55%51%46%42%
50%
May 2350%-1.0pp from start
May 22May 23May 23May 23May 23May 23May 23May 23
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch Iran closes its airspace by May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?UMA DISPUTED
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?UMA DISPUTED
High
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?UMA DISPUTED
High
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?UMA DISPUTED
High
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23?UMA PENDING
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-05-23?UMA PENDING
High
High
Minnesota Lynx vs. Chicago SkyUMA PENDING
High
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St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati RedsPAST EVENT
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Medium
Medium
Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 88 | 95/89 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 88 | 95/86 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 86 | 90/89 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 85 | 95/77 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 78 | 67/89 86/80 | Compare siblings |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 23, 2026
Read full brief - Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs probability up 48.5pp on $0.5M of 24h volume.
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- Canadiens vs. Hurricanes resolves in 3h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
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RISK INCREASED (3)
WATCHLIST DELTA
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