High
Orrery — decision terminal for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
6 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue 1Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28?
Resolves in 1h — verify the source
Verify
2Roland Garros ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Frances Tiafoe
Event date has passed while the market is still active upstream
Verify
3US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Resolves in 57h — verify the source
Verify
4Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage
UMA proposed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
5US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?
Resolves in 9h — verify the source
Verify
MARKET PULSE
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?HIGH EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
16% 11.3pp
24h volume
$254.1K
Orrery Pulse15% current3-18% 7D range-1.1pp net move
20%15%10%5%0%
15%
May 2815%-1.1pp from start
May 21May 22May 23May 24May 25May 26May 27May 28
HIGH-EVIDENCE OBSERVATIONS
All signals 1Open 2Open 3Open 4Open 5Open 6Open
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Top read
24h Δ 11.3pp, 1h Δ 2.6pp · Turnover 5.5× liquidity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
24h Δ -1.0pp · 1h Δ 5.0pp
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
24h Δ -4.0pp · 1h Δ 5.0pp
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?
24h Δ -6.0pp · 1h Δ 4.0pp
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
24h Δ -9.0pp · 1h Δ 7.0pp
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
24h Δ -8.5pp · 1h Δ 5.5pp
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch Iran closes its airspace by May 31?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 - Game 2 WinnerUMA PENDING
High
Will Donald Trump dance on May 25, 2026?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
High
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2UMA PENDING
High
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
High
High
High
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Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 84 | 95/78 74/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 83 | 82/89 80/80 | Compare siblings | |
| 83 | 82/89 80/80 | Compare siblings | |
| 82 | 81/86 80/80 | Compare siblings | |
| 77 | 81/83 60/80 | Compare siblings |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 28, 2026
Read full brief - MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? probability up 11.3pp on $0.3M of 24h volume.
- MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28? resolves in 1h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
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