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Today
5 things to verify
6 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue MARKET PULSE
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?HIGH EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
66% 47.5pp
24h volume
$6.0M
Orrery Pulse35% current31-49% 7D range-13.5pp net move
52%46%40%34%28%
35%
May 2335%-13.5pp from start
May 16May 17May 18May 19May 20May 21May 22May 23
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch Iran closes its airspace by May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?UMA DISPUTED
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?UMA DISPUTED
High
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?UMA DISPUTED
High
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23?UMA PENDING
High
High
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue JaysUMA PENDING
High
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-23?UMA PENDING
High
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-23?UMA PENDING
High
High
Houston Astros vs. Chicago CubsUMA PENDING
High
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5UMA PENDING
High
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-23?UMA PENDING
High
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-23?UMA PENDING
High
High
High
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest - Game 2 WinnerUMA PENDING
High
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-23?UMA PENDING
High
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-05-23?UMA PENDING
High
Will Elche CF win on 2026-05-23?UMA PENDING
High
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-24?UMA PENDING
High
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest - Game 1 WinnerUMA PENDING
High
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St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati RedsPAST EVENT
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Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 90 | 95/89 90/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 88 | 95/89 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 87 | 95/83 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 86 | 95/78 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 85 | 95/93 60/80 | Inspect timeline |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 23, 2026
Read full brief - Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? probability up 50.0pp on $0.4M of 24h volume.
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- Canadiens vs. Hurricanes resolves in 1h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
- —
RISK INCREASED (3)
WATCHLIST DELTA
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