Will Séamas McGrattan win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?
Probability
0¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$33.13
Liquidity
$10.9K
Probability (last 7 days)
-0.1pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 1
Thin liquidity
Only $10.9k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
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Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5979.1h
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingLinkTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
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