Iran closes its airspace by June 30?UMA DISPUTED
High
Orrery — the verification layer for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
2 observations · 32 resolution risks
VERIFICATION QUEUERanked checks before you trust the price.
Full research queue Recommended next check
Start here: Verify the resolution source and event-cluster siblings1Bitcoin Up or Down on June 5?
Resolves in 2h — verify the source
Verify
2Will Thailand win on 2026-06-05?
Expired — settlement verification still pending upstream
Verify
3Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Expired — settlement verification still pending upstream
Verify
4Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Resolves in 34h — verify the source
Verify
5Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner
Resolves in 4h — verify the source
Verify
ACTIVE VERIFICATION TARGET
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?HIGH EVIDENCE
Active target: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
27% 6.0pp
24h volume
$261.0K
Verification target0% current0-35% 7D range-7.0pp net move
48%36%24%12%0%
0%
May 310%-7.0pp from start
May 29May 29May 29May 30May 30May 30May 30May 31
WHY THIS IS ACTIVE
Orrery is prioritizing this market because price movement, volume, and evidence context make it worth checking before reading the price as information.
6.0pp24h move$261.0K24h volumeVerifysource and settlement path
EVIDENCE ACTIONS
All signals 2Open
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev
24h Δ 3.0pp, 1h Δ 9.5pp · Turnover 23.7× liquidity
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch High
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Will China PR win on 2026-06-05?UMA PENDING
High
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Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 82 | 81/85 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 78 | 71/86 80/80 | Inspect timeline |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFJune 5, 2026
Read full brief - Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? probability down 13.8pp on $0.2M of 24h volume.
- US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? shows a momentum pattern at 81% evidence — verify on the market.
- Bitcoin Up or Down on June 5? resolves in 2h — verify the source before treating as research.
IGNORE (0)
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