High
Orrery — decision terminal for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
5 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue 1Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28?
Resolves in 2h — verify the source
Verify
2Roland Garros ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Moise Kouame
UMA proposed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
3US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
Resolves in 58h — verify the source
Verify
4US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Resolves in 58h — verify the source
Verify
5Roland Garros ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Frances Tiafoe
Event date has passed while the market is still active upstream
Verify
MARKET PULSE
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?HIGH EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
23% 13.9pp
24h volume
$348.2K
Orrery Pulse0% current0-1% 7D range-1.0pp net move
17%13%9%4%0%
0%
May 280%-1.0pp from start
May 26May 26May 26May 27May 27May 27May 28May 28
HIGH-EVIDENCE OBSERVATIONS
All signals 1Open 2Open 3Open 4Open 5Open
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?Top read
24h Δ -29.0pp, 1h Δ -1.0pp · Turnover 8.8× liquidity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
24h Δ -14.0pp, 1h Δ -1.0pp · Turnover 2.3× liquidity
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?
24h Δ 13.9pp, 1h Δ 6.5pp · Turnover 5.0× liquidity
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
24h Δ 8.3pp, 1h Δ 0.7pp · Turnover 4.5× liquidity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?
24h Δ -12.0pp, 1h Δ -1.0pp · Turnover 1.5× liquidity
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch Iran closes its airspace by May 31?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
High
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 - Game 2 WinnerUMA PENDING
High
Will Donald Trump dance on May 25, 2026?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2UMA PENDING
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
High
High
High
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Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 88 | 95/87 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 87 | 95/81 86/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 87 | 95/83 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 85 | 89/79 90/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 85 | 88/88 80/80 | Inspect timeline |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 28, 2026
Read full brief - US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? probability down 29.0pp on $0.9M of 24h volume.
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 28? resolves in 2h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
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