Iran closes its airspace by June 30?UMA DISPUTED
High
Orrery — the verification layer for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
4 observations · 32 resolution risks
VERIFICATION QUEUERanked checks before you trust the price.
Full research queue Recommended next check
Start here: Verify the resolution source and event-cluster siblings1Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Resolves in 34h — verify the source
Verify
2Will Thailand win on 2026-06-05?
Expired — settlement verification still pending upstream
Verify
3Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner
Resolves in 4h — verify the source
Verify
4Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1
Resolves in 6h — verify the source
Verify
5Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Expired — settlement verification still pending upstream
Verify
ACTIVE VERIFICATION TARGET
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander ZverevHIGH EVIDENCE
Active target: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
6% 18.0pp
24h volume
$4.3M
Verification target0% current0-14% 7D range-5.5pp net move
19%14%9%5%0%
0%
Jun 50%-5.5pp from start
Jun 3Jun 3Jun 3Jun 4Jun 4Jun 4Jun 5Jun 5
WHY THIS IS ACTIVE
Orrery is prioritizing this market because price movement, volume, and evidence context make it worth checking before reading the price as information.
18.0pp24h move$4.3M24h volumeVerifysource and settlement path
EVIDENCE ACTIONS
All signals 1Open
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander ZverevQueue proof
24h Δ -18.0pp, 1h Δ -18.0pp · Turnover 29.2× liquidity
2Open
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?
24h Δ -13.8pp, 1h Δ -0.3pp · Turnover 2.3× liquidity
4Open
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
24h Δ 3.0pp, 1h Δ 0.5pp · Turnover 2.7× liquidity
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch High
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Will China PR win on 2026-06-05?UMA PENDING
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Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 90 | 95/83 96/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 88 | 95/86 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 80 | 76/85 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 73 | 71/83 60/80 | Inspect timeline |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFJune 5, 2026
Read full brief - Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev probability down 18.0pp on $4.3M of 24h volume.
- Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? resolves in 2h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
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