Iran closes its airspace by May 31?UMA DISPUTED
High
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5 things to verify
4 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue 1US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Resolves in 51h — verify the source
Verify
2Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
Resolves in 51h — verify the source
Verify
3US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
Resolves in 51h — verify the source
Verify
4US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?
Resolves in 3h — verify the source
Verify
5Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5
Resolves in 1h — verify the source
Verify
MARKET PULSE
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?HIGH EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest divergence observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
46% 6.0pp
24h volume
$342.0K
Orrery Pulse0% current0-77% 7D range-50.0pp net move
100%75%50%25%0%
0%
May 280%-50.0pp from start
May 27May 28May 28May 28May 28May 28May 28May 28
HIGH-EVIDENCE OBSERVATIONS
All signals 2Open
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?
24h Δ -3.0pp, 1h Δ -3.0pp · Turnover 10.0× liquidity
3Open
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
24h Δ -3.0pp, 1h Δ -1.0pp · Turnover 1.8× liquidity
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
Will Donald Trump dance on May 25, 2026?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
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Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 81 | 80/82 80/80 | Compare siblings | |
| 77 | 67/90 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 77 | 71/83 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 73 | 58/80 90/80 | Compare siblings |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 28, 2026
Read full brief - Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? probability up 22.9pp on $0.2M of 24h volume.
- US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? shows a divergence pattern at 80% evidence — verify on the market.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 resolves in 1h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
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