High
Orrery — decision terminal for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
6 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue 1Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
2US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
Resolves in 5h — verify the source
Verify
3Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
4Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox
Momentum observation
Momentum
5US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Resolves in 5h — verify the source
Verify
MARKET PULSE
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White SoxHIGH EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
28% 23.0pp
24h volume
$434.4K
Orrery Pulse32% current32-65% 7D range-18.5pp net move
70%59%48%37%26%
32%
May 3032%-18.5pp from start
May 24May 25May 26May 27May 28May 29May 29May 30
HIGH-EVIDENCE OBSERVATIONS
All signals 1Open
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White SoxTop read
24h Δ -23.0pp, 1h Δ -21.0pp · Turnover 6.6× liquidity
2Open
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe
24h Δ 9.0pp, 1h Δ 9.0pp · Turnover 5.0× liquidity
3Open
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Raphael Collignon
24h Δ 7.0pp, 1h Δ 5.0pp · Turnover 9.2× liquidity
5Open
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
24h Δ -5.5pp, 1h Δ -0.4pp · Turnover 10.1× liquidity
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch Iran closes its airspace by May 31?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?UMA PENDING
High
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)UMA PENDING
High
High
High
High
High
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
High
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)UMA PENDING
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
UEFA Champions League: Unbeaten ChampionUMA PENDING
High
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOS - Game 1 WinnerUMA PENDING
High
High
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Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86 | 95/80 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 85 | 91/83 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 82 | 79/83 90/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 82 | 85/81 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 81 | 80/82 80/80 | Compare siblings |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 30, 2026
Read full brief - Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox probability down 23.0pp on $0.4M of 24h volume.
- Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? resolves in 5h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
- —
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