Iran closes its airspace by June 30?UMA DISPUTED
High
Orrery — the verification layer for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
2 observations · 32 resolution risks
VERIFICATION QUEUERanked checks before you trust the price.
Full research queue Recommended next check
Start here: Verify the resolution source and event-cluster siblings1Bitcoin Up or Down on June 5?
Resolves in 2h — verify the source
Verify
2Will Thailand win on 2026-06-05?
Expired — settlement verification still pending upstream
Verify
3Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Expired — settlement verification still pending upstream
Verify
4Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Resolves in 34h — verify the source
Verify
5Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner
Resolves in 4h — verify the source
Verify
ACTIVE VERIFICATION TARGET
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?HIGH EVIDENCE
Active target: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
27% 6.0pp
24h volume
$261.0K
Verification target98% current38-98% 7D range+59.0pp net move
100%80%59%39%18%
98%
Jun 498%+59.0pp from start
Jun 3Jun 3Jun 4Jun 4Jun 4Jun 4Jun 4Jun 4
WHY THIS IS ACTIVE
Orrery is prioritizing this market because price movement, volume, and evidence context make it worth checking before reading the price as information.
6.0pp24h move$261.0K24h volumeVerifysource and settlement path
EVIDENCE ACTIONS
All signals 2Open
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev
24h Δ 3.0pp, 1h Δ 9.5pp · Turnover 23.7× liquidity
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch High
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Will China PR win on 2026-06-05?UMA PENDING
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Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 82 | 81/85 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 78 | 71/86 80/80 | Inspect timeline |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFJune 5, 2026
Read full brief - Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? probability down 13.8pp on $0.2M of 24h volume.
- US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? shows a momentum pattern at 81% evidence — verify on the market.
- Bitcoin Up or Down on June 5? resolves in 2h — verify the source before treating as research.
IGNORE (0)
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