High
Orrery — decision terminal for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
4 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue 1Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
2Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Event date has passed while the market is still active upstream
Verify
3US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Resolves in 21h — verify the source
Verify
4Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?
Resolves in 49h — verify the source
Verify
5Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?
UMA disputed — verify before treating moves as new info
Verify
MARKET PULSE
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?MIXED EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest divergence observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
23% 3.0pp
24h volume
$1.0M
Orrery Pulse23% current3-40% 7D range+12.8pp net move
50%37%25%12%0%
23%
May 3023%+12.8pp from start
May 23May 24May 25May 26May 27May 28May 29May 30
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch High
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
Canadiens vs. HurricanesUMA PENDING
High
Miami Marlins vs. New York MetsUMA PENDING
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?UMA DISPUTED
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)UMA PENDING
High
High
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White SoxUMA PENDING
High
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-05-29?UMA PENDING
High
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
High
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New York Yankees vs. AthleticsPAST EVENT
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Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston AstrosPAST EVENT
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Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80 | 67/87 96/80 | Compare siblings | |
| 77 | 63/81 96/80 | Compare siblings | |
| 70 | 52/86 80/80 | Compare siblings | |
| 68 | 50/80 80/80 | Compare siblings |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 30, 2026
Read full brief - US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? probability down 11.0pp on $0.3M of 24h volume.
- MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? shows a divergence pattern at 67% evidence — verify on the market.
- Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? resolves in 13h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
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